Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
